{
  "study": "The State of McKinsey Solve 2026",
  "version": "v1.2",
  "dataCut": "2026-08-20",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "source": "https://solveprep.com/research/state-of-mckinsey-solve-2026",
  "citation": "SolvePrep, \"The State of McKinsey Solve 2026\" (v1.2, data cut 20 Aug 2026), solveprep.com/research/state-of-mckinsey-solve-2026",
  "notes": "Aggregate, non-personal figures only. Confidence intervals are percentile bootstrap (10,000 resamples) drawn at the user level. pp = percentage points.",
  "sample": {
    "totalRuns": 26622,
    "distinctCandidates": 5174,
    "gameUserPairs": 9004,
    "byGame": [
      { "game": "Sea Wolf Game", "runs": 7152, "users": 3061, "windowStart": "2025-12-30", "windowEnd": "2026-08-19" },
      { "game": "Red Rock Study", "runs": 11063, "users": 3528, "windowStart": "2026-02-22", "windowEnd": "2026-08-20" },
      { "game": "Sustainable Futures Lab", "runs": 8407, "users": 2415, "windowStart": "2026-04-01", "windowEnd": "2026-08-20" }
    ]
  },
  "improvement": [
    { "game": "Red Rock Study", "repeatUsers": 2043, "medianGainPp": 20.3, "ci95": [18.9, 21.6], "meanGainPp": 24.1, "medianFirstPct": 61.2, "medianBestPct": 81.5, "shareImprovedPct": 76.5 },
    { "game": "Sustainable Futures Lab", "repeatUsers": 1486, "medianGainPp": 10.4, "ci95": [9.3, 11.5], "meanGainPp": 11.3, "medianFirstPct": 58.4, "medianBestPct": 68.8, "shareImprovedPct": 71.8 },
    { "game": "Sea Wolf Game", "repeatUsers": 1214, "medianGainPp": 6.7, "ci95": [5.8, 7.6], "meanGainPp": 8.6, "medianFirstPct": 71.4, "medianBestPct": 78.1, "shareImprovedPct": 59.1 }
  ],
  "biasControls": {
    "description": "best-minus-first is upward biased (max-of-k). firstToSecond has no max-of-k selection; permutationPlacebo recomputes the same statistic after shuffling each user's run order 10,000 times.",
    "rows": [
      { "game": "Red Rock Study", "headlinePp": 20.3, "firstToSecondPp": 11.8, "permutationPlaceboPp": 8.9, "netOfPlaceboPp": 11.4 },
      { "game": "Sustainable Futures Lab", "headlinePp": 10.4, "firstToSecondPp": 6.1, "permutationPlaceboPp": 4.7, "netOfPlaceboPp": 5.7 },
      { "game": "Sea Wolf Game", "headlinePp": 6.7, "firstToSecondPp": 3.9, "permutationPlaceboPp": 3.4, "netOfPlaceboPp": 3.3 }
    ]
  },
  "componentLoss": {
    "unit": "percent of available points lost, pooled across runs",
    "coverage": { "Red Rock Study": 10940, "Sustainable Futures Lab": 8317 },
    "rows": [
      { "game": "Sustainable Futures Lab", "component": "Consistency across linked decisions", "weight": "20 of 118 pts", "lossPct": 60.7, "ci95": [59.4, 62.0] },
      { "game": "Red Rock Study", "component": "Written report", "weight": "~25% of total", "lossPct": 41.2, "ci95": [40.1, 42.3] },
      { "game": "Sustainable Futures Lab", "component": "Priority ranking", "weight": "18 of 118 pts", "lossPct": 39.1, "ci95": [37.8, 40.4] },
      { "game": "Red Rock Study", "component": "Analysis (calculations)", "weight": "~40% of total", "lossPct": 38.5, "ci95": [37.6, 39.4] },
      { "game": "Sustainable Futures Lab", "component": "Situational judgment", "weight": "65 of 118 pts", "lossPct": 33.5, "ci95": [32.6, 34.4] },
      { "game": "Red Rock Study", "component": "Chart building", "weight": "~15% of total", "lossPct": 30.4, "ci95": [29.2, 31.6] },
      { "game": "Red Rock Study", "component": "Cases", "weight": "~20% of total", "lossPct": 27.9, "ci95": [26.9, 28.9] },
      { "game": "Sustainable Futures Lab", "component": "Stakeholder management", "weight": "15 of 118 pts", "lossPct": 24.5, "ci95": [23.4, 25.6] }
    ]
  },
  "seaWolfErrors": {
    "unit": "percent of submitted sites",
    "sites": 21456,
    "rows": [
      { "error": "Attribute average outside target range", "ratePct": 33.5 },
      { "error": "Undesirable trait included", "ratePct": 12.6 },
      { "error": "Required desirable trait missing", "ratePct": 9.8 }
    ]
  },
  "reconciliation": [
    { "game": "Red Rock Study", "impliedMeanPct": 64.1, "pooledMedianPct": 66.0 },
    { "game": "Sustainable Futures Lab", "impliedMeanPct": 62.2, "pooledMedianPct": 63.4 },
    { "game": "Sea Wolf Game", "impliedMeanPct": 75.4, "pooledMedianPct": 76.5 }
  ],
  "practiceVolume": {
    "buckets": ["1", "2-3", "4-6", "7+"],
    "users": {
      "Sea Wolf Game": [1847, 762, 300, 152],
      "Red Rock Study": [1485, 1150, 610, 283],
      "Sustainable Futures Lab": [929, 800, 440, 246]
    },
    "medianScorePct": {
      "Sea Wolf Game": [68.9, 74.2, 78.4, 80.1],
      "Red Rock Study": [63.5, 66.2, 71.8, 74.6],
      "Sustainable Futures Lab": [57.9, 60.3, 63.7, 65.4]
    }
  },
  "timing": {
    "candidatesWithTestDate": 3622,
    "candidatesWithTestDatePct": 70,
    "candidates": 3401,
    "runs": 20402,
    "medianLeadTimeDays": 1,
    "buckets": [
      { "window": "0-2 days before test", "candidates": 2392, "sharePct": 70.3, "runs": 14377 },
      { "window": "2-4 days before test", "candidates": 646, "sharePct": 19.0, "runs": 3894 },
      { "window": "4+ days before test", "candidates": 363, "sharePct": 10.7, "runs": 2131 }
    ],
    "note": "Unit is the candidate, bucketed on their first run relative to their stated test date. Buckets are mutually exclusive and sum to 3,401 candidates and 20,402 runs."
  }
}